Pound To Australian Dollar: Short-Term (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast

Published: 20 Oct 2017 21:23

aussie dollar exchange rate

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Short-Term & Long-Term Forecast

The Australian Dollar exchange rate fell sharply against the British Pound on Thursday after unemployment in Australia was shown to have climbed to its highest level in 13 years in January 2015.

The trading week began with the British Pound continuing to give up, little by little, day by day some of the strong gains made last Tuesday and Wednesday in the aftermath of the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut Australian interest rates to a new all time record low of just 2.25% in the face of the economic slowdown of its most important trading partner, China and the potential threat of the so-called ‘Grexit’ or Greek exit from the euro zone and the economic chaos that such a decision would ensue.

A quick foreign exchange market summary before we bring you the rest of the report:

On Thursday the Pound to British Pound exchange rate (GBP/GBP) converts at 1

At time of writing the pound to pound exchange rate is quoted at 1.

At time of writing the pound to euro exchange rate is quoted at 1.17.

Today finds the pound to new zealand dollar spot exchange rate priced at 2.113.

NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 28th Mar 2024, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.

Pound to Aus Dollar Exchange Rate Outlook

With no data releases out of the UK yesterday, in theory the week should have started off strongly but the Pound managed to lose another 0.5% yesterday ahead of some important data releases.

Later on today, we will have the latest UK retail sales figures and industrial production orders.

Neither is expected to show anything other than the sluggish start the UK economic has made to 2015.

On Thursday, the Bank of England will publish its latest Quarterly inflation report, always keenly watched for any signs of the latest thinking form the UK’s highest policy setting body on the direction and timing of monetary policy changes like UK interest rates, stuck at their current all-time record low level of 0.5% since March 2009.

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In contrast, two items of news, both from ‘down under’ in theory should have weakened the Australian Dollar but didn’t.

Firstly, another poor data release came from China with news that the Chinese trade surplus unexpectedly ballooned to a record $60 billion in January from a figure of $49.6 billion in December as imports sank by an annual rate of 19.9% compared with the 2.4% decline registered in December. Exports were also weak, falling by 3.3%, a sharp reversal after the 9.7% increase registered in December.

Only last week, the Chinese authorities lowered the reserve requirement ratio of local banks by 0.5% to 19.5%, the first cut since May 2012, in an effort to boost lending. The market may be beginning to price in further stimulus measures from the Chinese authorities in the near term future.

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Politically, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott survived a party confidence vote barely 16 months into his premiership but the result, showing that 39% of parliamentarians from Abbott’s own party voted to unseat him is likely to have significantly weakened his grip on power and lead to more leadership challenges at a time that the Australian economy is facing its most serious economic crisis since the recession of 1991.

Nevertheless, the Australian Dollar shrugged off both the poor economic and political news and managed to make its second daily gain in a row and continue to gain back some of the ground lost last week.

The data out of the UK this week is unlikely to be particularly Pound supportive so unless things go from bad to worse ‘down under’ it may well be that last week’s peaks which saw the Pound trade at levels not seen since August 2009 against the Australian Dollar may have been a ‘flash in the pan’.

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