British Pound To Euro Exchange Rate Forecast: Can GBP Extend Best Run To 1.32 EUR And 1.48 USD Today?

Published: 20 Oct 2017 21:24 Currency Markets Ecomomy News Forex

pound to euro exchange rate forecast

Today's British pound to euro conversion rate is holding its best position in months having surged by over one per cent to breach the key 1.3 level on Tuesday. Latest polling demographics show a large drop-off in leave support, bolstering sterling against a majority of currency peers, including the US dollar.

  • GBP/EUR Holds 1.31 - Second Estimate GDP on forecast.
  • Euro (EUR) exchange rates on back foot - Oversold vs sterling according to forecasts.
  • Broader US Dollar (USD) looking set to develop a correction phase - GBP could see 1.48-1.4950.

The British pound (GBP) exchange rates have so far managed to hold off currency rivals such as the euro, US dollar today to keep gains secured over the last two days.

Lloyds, in their latest EUR/GBP analysis, warn the euro to pound exchange rate is oversold:

"We have extended the reversal from 0.7750-0.7780 resistance to test channel support in the 0.7560/55 region, with last years range highs around 0.7500 just below. Intra-day studies are oversold and suggest another rebound from this area is possible, but such a move is likely to be limited to 0.7650-90 resistance."

The ‘Brexit’ debate remained the major driver behind the pound sterling exchange rate outlook in relation to the euro, US dollar, Australian dollar, NZ dollar and the Canadian dollar on Wednesday, as markets reacted to a forecast from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS).

While the IFS predicted that a vote to leave the EU could result in two additional years of austerity measures this prompted Pound Sterling to build on its recent gains, trending higher against the majors.

Sterling rallied further on Tuesday afternoon after fresh cautions from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney over the potential negative impact of a ‘Brexit’ on the domestic economy.

  1. The pound to euro exchange rate jumped 1.68% to 1.312.
  2. A 1.08% move higher was seen in the pound to dollar exchange rate.

Foreign exchange markets (and sterling investors) were generally encouraged by Carney’s comments, as the Governor was recently found to have a greater influence on undecided voters than the Chancellor of the Exchequer

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The British pound exchange rate complex has managed an almost universal rally against its currency peers today, with notable gains against the euro, US dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar.

After a poll in the Telegraph showed the remain camp were now in a significant lead in the EU referendum campaign, the pound sterling exchange rates rallied.

The Telegraph-sourced poll also makes an interesting point on the potential voter makeup, with groups previously considered to be ‘Leave’ candidates, such as older Britons and men, bucking the trend and backing the ‘Remain’ side. In terms of numbers, the latest ORB poll has assigned 55% of the vote for ‘In’ and 42% for ‘Out’.

In other news, recent borrowing figures have shown that Chancellor George Osborne has missed his target by almost £4bn, though this does not seem to have dented Sterling’s current strong performance.

GBP to EUR exchange rate chart

Other Pound Sterling / Currency Exchange News

Latest Pound/Euro Exchange Rates

On Friday the Pound to British Pound exchange rate (GBP/GBP) converts at 1

Today finds the pound to pound spot exchange rate priced at 1.

FX markets see the pound vs us dollar exchange rate converting at 1.262.

At time of writing the pound to australian dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.939.

The live inter-bank GBP-CAD spot rate is quoted as 1.71 today.

The live inter-bank GBP-NZD spot rate is quoted as 2.114 today.

Please note: the FX rates above, updated 29th Mar 2024, will have a commission applied by your typical high street bank. Currency brokers specialise in these type of foreign currency transactions and can save you up to 5% on international payments compared to the banks.

Intensification of EU Referendum Campaigns may Lead to Further GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Jumps This Week

Although domestic data is fairly thin on the ground for the rest of the week, the Pound could still be pushed upward by political arguments.

It appears that the ‘In’ part of the Government have put together a concerted schedule of supporting events this week, as yesterday saw the PM make the case for remaining in a B&Q, while today will bring the argument that air fares could rise if a ‘Brexit’ occurred.

Outside of this more nebulous announcement, Bank of England (BoE) officials including Governor Mark Carney are expected to be talking in Parliament today.

euro to pound sterling exchange rate chart

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Mixed as ZEW Surveys Show Mixed Outlook

The single currency has been left rudderless today, on account of repeated contrasts being seen in Eurozone ecostats of note.

Earlier on, Germany’s finalised GBP growth rate for Q1 printed positively, which came alongside falling unemployment in Finland.

More recently, however, the single currency has been hit by the new that a rising Germany ZEW survey outcome for current conditions in May has been countered by poor economic sentiment indices for both Germany and the Eurozone.

EUR/USD Outlook: ECB Contributions Incoming along with Greek Debt Discussion

The next contributions from the Eurozone will consist of Eurozone-wide contributions, beginning with a financial stability review in the early afternoon.

Following on from this a short while later will be a European Central Bank (ECB) speech, from official Danielle Nouy.

The last event likely to have a notable impact on the Euro’s value will be a Eurogroup meeting concerning Greece which is due to start this afternoon. Although Greece is expected to have a relatively small role, it will nonetheless be the centre of attention as creditors discuss potential solutions to Greek debt such as relief terms.

Greek Debt Situation may Cause Euro to Pound Exchange Rate to Crash if No Resolution is Reached

The afternoon may be a vital event in terms of long-term Euro movement, given the potential for change that rests in the hands of Eurogroup officials.

Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have put debt relief as a key requirement for Greece to get back on its feet, with a graph showing mounting debt-to-GDP if no relief is granted.

Speaking yesterday after his government passed harsh and required austerity measures, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said:

‘European leaders will receive a message tonight, that Greece fulfils its obligations. Tomorrow, the other side must also take responsibility’.

In almost all cases, the Pound has managed to hold onto its gains against peers due to sustained evidence of ‘Remain’ support

The Pound has being able to keep a solid hold on the bulk of its earlier advances, thanks in part to a strong defence from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney. The Governor was under fire from Treasury Select Committee officials, who had been attempting to poke holes in the policymaker’s statements that a UK exit from the EU would cause economic instability.

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