Hungarian Forint & Polish Zloty News: EUR/PLN And EUR/HUF Exchange Rate Outlooks In 2016

Published: 20 Oct 2017 21:24 Forex

Lloyds EUR to HUF and PLN exchange rate forecast

Today's EUR/HUF conversion rate is predicted to fall to fresh lows in 2016. The EUR/PLN is also forecast to edge lower, however, with risk to the upside.

  1. The British Pound to Polish Zloty exchange rate today: -0.39pct at 4.89758.
  2. The Euro to Hungarian Forint exchange rate today: 309.89 HUF.

Lloyds Bank forecasts the EUR/HUF exchange rate to drop towards the 304 level in a year’s time as shown in the chart below.

EUR to HUF exchange rate to fall in 2016
Source: Lloyds report

Growth in Hungary

The Hungarian economy grew by 2.6 percent in the second quarter, compared to the previous year, which beats the 1.9 percent growth estimates of a Bloomberg survey.

“The data show that Hungary’s economic momentum continues,” Economy Minister Mihaly Varga told reporters in Budapest after the data release. “We have high hopes that this dynamism will be even stronger in the second half of the year” as consumption drives growth, reports Bloomberg.

Hungarian Inflation to rise in September

However, the CPI fell by 0.3 percent year on year in July, according to the Central Statistical Office (KSH).

Nevertheless, most market participants believe that the print for August will be in the positive breaking the three-month negative streak. By September, the numbers should pick up significantly due to favorable base effects and the effects of the excise tax hikes will also start to show.

ADVERTISEMENT
foreign exchange rates
“If no unexpected negative cost shock hits the Hungarian economy inflation could jump north of 1%,” said Péter Virovácz, chief analyst at ING Bank in Budapest, reports Portfolio.
Lloyds view

According to the Lloyds report, though the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) has kept interest rates unchanged at 0.9 percent in its July meeting, “the central bank is making greater use of its corridor in order to further bring down market interest rates”.

However, they believe that the ECB’s QE program will dwarf any move by the MNB. Hence, “any EUR/HUF upside may be modest and short-lived.”

However, Commerzbank believes that the MNB will likely reduce rates to 0.5 percent in 2017. They believe, the calls for a rate cut is likely to increase by the year end, following low inflation and weaker growth, which “is expected to exert upward pressure on EUR/HUF, particularly if the US Fed is seen hiking rates in December 2016”, reports the Econotimes.

Latest Exchange Rates

On Thursday the Hungarian Forint to British Pound exchange rate (HUF/GBP) converts at 0.002

At time of writing the pound to hungarian forint exchange rate is quoted at 461.16.

Today finds the pound to polish zloty spot exchange rate priced at 5.039.

The GBP to GBP exchange rate converts at 1 today.

Please note: the FX rates above, updated 28th Mar 2024, will have a commission applied by your typical high street bank. Currency brokers specialise in these type of foreign currency transactions and can save you up to 5% on international payments compared to the banks.

Lloyds EUR/HUF report

Trader View on the EUR/HUF Exchange Rate

The EUR/HUF has traded in a broad range for more than a year and there is nothing to suggest that the range will be broken. It is likely that the currency pair will continue to remain in the range until any surprise move either by the ECB or the MNB. Any move outside of the range should be short-lived and temporary.

Is the next move on the EUR/LPN higher or lower

Lloyds forecasts the EUR/PLN to move lower till Jun 17, as shown in the chart below, however, they point that the “risks to the forecast remain on the upside”.

EUR to PLN chart

Zloty cheering government’s proposal

Many believed that the success story of Poland will derail following the victory of the Law & Justice party, with expectations of populist measures and greater state control of the economy. However, transferring control of the Swiss-franc mortgages to the central bank allayed some of those fears.

"Pragmatism does seem to have prevailed," said Roxana Hulea, a strategist at SocGen in London. "While the government hasn’t managed to entirely overturn the initial fears that engulfed markets in the aftermath of its victory last year, there are simply less negatives in the pipeline," reports Bloomberg.

The Zloty responded to the proposals by posting the best two-day gain in over a year, to reach three-month highs against the Euro, as shown in the chart below.

euro to zloty outlook

Differing views on the EUR/PLN

The average forecast of a Bloomberg poll of 47 analysts shows the currency weakening to 4.36 per Euro by the end of 2016.

On the other hand, Jakob Christensen, the chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, believes that the currency will strengthen to 4.22 per Euro in the next 12 months, reports Bloomberg.

“Support will come as political uncertainty declines, confidence that the government will meet next year’s budget target increases, and robust growth prompts speculation monetary policy can be tightened,” said Christensen.

Our Trader View for the EUR/PLN Exchange Rate

trading tips for the EUR/PLN

Though the EUR/PLN is in a large range, the current move can take the currency down to the 4.22 levels, if it continues to trade below the downtrend line.

However, as the RSI has reached oversold levels, we can expect some kind of a pullback to reach the down trendline, post which the currency pair should drop to the support levels of 4.22 as shown in the chart.

However, if the down trendline is broken out, the pair can reach the levels of 4.36.

Advertisement

Save money on your currency transfers with TorFX, voted International Money Transfer Provider of the Year 2016 - 2022. Their goal is to connect clients with ultra competitive exchange rates and a uniquely dedicated service whether they choose to trade online or over the telephone. Find out more here.

Related News

Pound to Euro: "Coming Months Could Provide Sweet Spot for GBP" say BofA Forecasters

Pound to Euro: "Coming Months Could Provide Sweet Spot for GBP" say BofA Forecasters

GBP

March 02 2024

There was choppy trading for the Pound Sterling and Euro against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in New York on Thursday, but the GBP to EUR exchange rate was again held in narrow...


Pound to Dollar End-of-Week Forecast: "Low/mid-1.25 Zone Looks Likely" say Scotiabank

Pound to Dollar End-of-Week Forecast: "Low/mid-1.25 Zone Looks Likely" say Scotiabank

GBP

March 23 2024

The British Pound lost further ground against the Euro and USD Dollar after Friday’s European open with increased speculation that the Bank of England would cut interest...


Pound to Euro Forecast for Next Week: Will UK Budget 2024 Impact GBP/EUR Exchange Rate?

Pound to Euro Forecast for Next Week: Will UK Budget 2024 Impact GBP/EUR Exchange Rate?

GBP

March 04 2024

Quick Take:The GBP/EUR exchange rate fluctuated last week due to changing bets on interest rate cuts by central banks, with little change from Friday's opening. The Pound saw...


Top Global FX Exchange Rate Forecasts - Latest Data Projections From Financial Institutions and Market Analysts

Euro to Dollar forecastPound to Euro forecastPound to Dollar forecastEuro to Pound forecastUS Dollar to Canadian Dollar forecastUS Dollar to Yen forecastAustralian Dollar to US Dollar forecast