Advertisement
U.S. markets open in 59 minutes
  • S&P Futures

    5,306.75
    -1.50 (-0.03%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    40,158.00
    +14.00 (+0.03%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    18,496.75
    -7.00 (-0.04%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    2,140.10
    +1.70 (+0.08%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    82.60
    +1.25 (+1.54%)
     
  • Gold

    2,234.10
    +21.40 (+0.97%)
     
  • Silver

    24.72
    -0.04 (-0.15%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.0791
    -0.0039 (-0.36%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.1960
    0.0000 (0.00%)
     
  • Vix

    13.02
    +0.24 (+1.88%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2622
    -0.0016 (-0.13%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    151.3660
    +0.1200 (+0.08%)
     
  • Bitcoin USD

    70,522.86
    +366.66 (+0.52%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    885.54
    0.00 (0.00%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,952.37
    +20.39 (+0.26%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    40,168.07
    -594.66 (-1.46%)
     

How to Profit From the British Pound's Slump

Just because President Barack Obama's threat to put Britain at the back of the line for new trade deals is fast becoming reality, it doesn't mean the U.K. is finished economically.

Better still, there are plenty of ways for investors to make some money out of the current situation.

When the British voters decided to leave the European Union in June, the news unleashed massive uncertainty. That's both the good news and the bad news. The bad news is that investors hate uncertainty in the same way cats loathe taking a bath -- when uncertainty rises, prices of assets tend to get marked down quickly.

"There is a wealth loss and a lot of uncertainty that will continue to cloud the outlook," says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston.

[See: 20 Awesome Dividend Stocks for Guaranteed Income.]

The loss of wealth is due to the collapse of the value of the British pound, which fell from about $1.48 on June 22, the day before the referendum, to nearly $1.30. Fewer dollars per pound means less buying power for the Brits. That is the cost of the uncertainty to anyone who holds their assets in pounds.

But for people who own dollars, or dollar-denominated assets, it also means their money will go further in Britain than it did a few months ago. If you wanted to purchase a holiday home, or an investment property, you might be able to get it for a cheaper price than you would have previously.

Real estate bargains. Already the uncertainty around the Brexit is making life challenging for real estate brokers at the top end of London's usually scorching housing market.

The drop in the pound amounts to a cut in prices of around a tenth, and doesn't include any hit in price due to potential buyers shunning the country over fears of Britain's future outside the E.U.

"(British real estate) can't get too darn cheap because Americans will buy the dickens out of them," says Ken Fisher, chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments. "British real estate is advertised all over America."

Rest assured, as the uncertainty around the country's role outside the E.U. dissipates the currency will rally, so the price cut in the property market for foreigners may be a temporary phenomenon.

Little or no recession. The other piece of good news is that the fall in the pound will likely help the country avoid a bad recession.

Reinhart sees a "technical recession" before long, meaning that the growth would turn slightly negative for two consecutive quarters. The reason it won't be a deep recession is because the falling value of the currency will help boost exports, he says.

Not everyone is as pessimistic as that. Fisher sees the rallying British stock market as a sign that growth is really doing a lot better than some economists fear. "I hear lots of people saying Britain will have a recession, but usually when lots of people say that they don't get it," he says.

If that turns out to be true and the country avoids a recession, then British stocks might be worth a bet despite the recent surge. Investors might want to consider the iShares MSCI United Kingdom exchange-traded fund (EWU), which tracks a basket of U.K. equities. It has annual expenses of 0.48 percent, or $48 per $10,000 invested.

[See: 7 Ways to Tell a Stock is a Good Price.]

It's not just the short term that looks attractive -- the long run does too.

"The big private sector companies will lobby for trade and deals will be cut to allow trade to continue," Fisher says.

More trade generally means more growth, and more growth tends to boost stock prices.

The former British empire. Britain's empire might be long gone, but the cultural links are still strong. For instance, India, which is now growing faster than China's economy, shares English as a common language of business.

"India's Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi is very keen to attract foreign investment and trade," says Chuck Knudsen, an emerging markets portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price in Baltimore.

If a deal comes to pass it will likely be good for both countries, plus there is a chance that the South Asian country will buy something at which Britain excels -- high-tech armaments.

Knudsen says Modi is keen to increase the amount of military stock that India produces domestically. If Britain is lucky, and there is no reason that it shouldn't be, then perhaps India will build its own warships and then kit them out with advanced weaponry from Britain.

[See: 13 Ways to Take the Emotions Out of Investing.]

Such a move would benefit U.K. companies such as BAE Systems, which has a large defense business.



More From US News & World Report

Advertisement