Euro Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: Sell In Upper 1.12s

Published: 20 Oct 2017 21:24 Currency Markets Forex

Euro to us dollar exchange rate forecast

The EUR to USD rate continued to trend in a narrow region on Thursday morning as both currencies increased in appeal.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has remained range-bound this week and trades near the week’s opening levels of 1.1225, only hitting a high of 1.1273 on Monday and a low of 1.1184 on Wednesday.

The pair trends flatly on Thursday as the Euro and US Dollar both recovered from a drop in demand in the week.

In a note to clients, Scotiabank foresee further range-trading for the EUR/USD in the near-term:

"Short term technical parameters are unchanged; short-term momentum measures are flat, suggesting more range-trading. We look for support the broader range to remain 1.1180/1.1280 to persist for now – though we would prefer to look for opportunities to sell in the upper 1.12s."

Suggestions of no state aid for Deutsche Bank has improved Euro appetite today, with EUR beginning to eat away at losses made earlier in the session.

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijisselbloem has stated that Deutsche Bank must survive without government intervention, which markets are taking as a sign of confidence.

EUR to USD exchange rate chart

Today's Euro / Dollar Exchange Rates

ADVERTISEMENT
foreign exchange rates
On Friday the US Dollar to British Pound exchange rate (USD/GBP) converts at 0.793

The live inter-bank GBP-USD spot rate is quoted as 1.262 today.

At time of writing the pound to pound exchange rate is quoted at 1.

At time of writing the pound to canadian dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.709.

FX markets see the pound vs swiss franc exchange rate converting at 1.138.

NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 29th Mar 2024, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.

Euro (EUR) Bolstered Slightly vs US Dollar (USD) as Eurozone Confidence Beats Expectations

After trending weakly on Tuesday and Wednesday as concerns over a perceived financial crisis with Germany’s Deutsche Bank group, the Euro (EUR) exchange rates were bolstered by positive Eurozone data on Thursday.

While Germany’s key September unemployment figures did little to inspire investors, worsening by 1k throughout the month, the unemployment rate remained at a healthy 6.1%.

What was more encouraging was news that Eurozone confidence scores had beaten projections in many prints in September.

Economic confidence improved from 103.5 to 104.9, despite being expected to remain the same. September’s business climate indicator was expected to improve slightly from 0.02 to 0.05, but instead jumped to 0.45. Lastly, industrial confidence lightened much more than expected, from -4.4 to -1.7.

September’s final consumer confidence print met expectations, but as this was a slight improvement from August’s score the result of -8.2 didn’t disappoint too much.

The Euro was given a more significant boost later in the session as Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly came in with a year-on-year score of 0.7%, beating forecasts of 0.6%.

US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Recover Thanks to Optimistic Wednesday Data, Lower Risk

The US Dollar has spent much of the week so far experiencing limited and volatile movements, as markets indulged in a risk-correlated rally on Tuesday and early-Wednesday. This left the ‘safe-haven’ US Dollar weaker, despite generally solid market sentiment towards the currency.

However, with financial market jitters looming as the November US Presidential election approaches, the risk rally was short-lived and markets began to return to the US Dollar on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

Markets were also encouraged to buy into the US Dollar thanks to better-than-expected US ecostats published during Wednesday’s American session.

August’s preliminary durable goods orders missed a -1.5% contraction, instead scoring a stagnant 0.0% in a slightly relieving result. Durables excluding transportation printed a slightly smaller-than-expected contraction of -0.4%.

us dollar to euro exchange rate chart

EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Key Eurozone Data Due on Friday

Further Euro to US Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate movement is likely to occur before the weekend.

Friday’s session will see the publication of key Eurozone and US stats, including the Eurozone’s highly anticipated August unemployment rate and preliminary September inflation figures.

Unemployment is expected to have improved slightly from 10.1% to 10% in August, but if the result fails to reach 10% the Euro could lose a lot of favour among investors.

Eurozone inflation is also a particularly important figure, as yearly-inflation is expected to have improved from 0.2% to 0.4% year-on-year.

If it fails to make this improvement, bets of further European Central Bank (ECB) easing will increase and ECB critics will flare up the effectiveness of low interest rates.

The US Dollar’s chances of advancing are a little stronger in comparison. As USD appeal has strengthened this week, and with risk-sentiment likely to remain limited and only last for short bursts until November’s US election, the Dollar could begin a more sustained advance against major rivals.

Friday’s US August personal income and personal spending figures could boost the ‘Greenback’ slightly if results impress investors.

The coming Monday is set to bring major PMI printings, which are set to shift the Euro and US Dollar

In the former case, the final Eurozone manufacturing PMIs for September are expected to rise overall, with the exception of a Greek dip back into contraction being on the cards.

From the US, the Markit manufacturing PMI is predicted to dip slightly, although the ISM manufacturing PMI variant has a rise from 49.4 to 52 forecast.

Advertisement

Save money on your currency transfers with TorFX, voted International Money Transfer Provider of the Year 2016 - 2022. Their goal is to connect clients with ultra competitive exchange rates and a uniquely dedicated service whether they choose to trade online or over the telephone. Find out more here.

Related News

Pound to Euro Forecast for Next Week: Will UK Budget 2024 Impact GBP/EUR Exchange Rate?

Pound to Euro Forecast for Next Week: Will UK Budget 2024 Impact GBP/EUR Exchange Rate?

GBP

March 04 2024

Quick Take:The GBP/EUR exchange rate fluctuated last week due to changing bets on interest rate cuts by central banks, with little change from Friday's opening. The Pound saw...


Pound to Euro: "Coming Months Could Provide Sweet Spot for GBP" say BofA Forecasters

Pound to Euro: "Coming Months Could Provide Sweet Spot for GBP" say BofA Forecasters

GBP

March 02 2024

There was choppy trading for the Pound Sterling and Euro against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in New York on Thursday, but the GBP to EUR exchange rate was again held in narrow...


Pound to Dollar End-of-Week Forecast: "Low/mid-1.25 Zone Looks Likely" say Scotiabank

Pound to Dollar End-of-Week Forecast: "Low/mid-1.25 Zone Looks Likely" say Scotiabank

GBP

March 23 2024

The British Pound lost further ground against the Euro and USD Dollar after Friday’s European open with increased speculation that the Bank of England would cut interest...


Top Global FX Exchange Rate Forecasts - Latest Data Projections From Financial Institutions and Market Analysts

Euro to Dollar forecastPound to Euro forecastPound to Dollar forecastEuro to Pound forecastUS Dollar to Canadian Dollar forecastUS Dollar to Yen forecastAustralian Dollar to US Dollar forecast